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tagged: Barack Obama, Current Events, Election Day, Geoff Baggett, John McCain, McCain, Obama, Presidential ElectionElection Day Prognostications
Posted by Geoff Baggett in News & Culture
Well, the day is finally here. I, for one, am thrilled. I am ready for it all to be over. I’m a political junkie … but I’m really ready for this one to be over.
Around 10:00 this morning I will cast my vote for John McCain. It’s not that I am such a big fan of McCain … I’m not. But from my faith, political, and financial perspectives, I find an Obama presidency somewhere in the vicinity of unthinkable.
But, allow me to don my prophetic cap and add my prognistications for this election day.
Here’s how I think it’s going to play out by 11:30 PM tonight:
Popular Vote:
- Obama – 51%
- McCain – 46%
- Other Party candidates – 3%
Electoral College
- Obama – 311
- McCain – 227
Senate
- Net gain of six seats (two will be too close to call until morning).
House
- Democrats will gain 22 seats total (several too close to call until morning).
I predict that Obama will not carry all of the “toss-up” states that everyone seems to think he will carry. I predict that he will take Ohio and Virginia, but McCain will win Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, and Arizona. The election will be a lot closer than people seem to think it is going to be, from a popular vote perspective.
So, the United States will elect Barack Hussein Obama as its next president. (Forgive me … slight “out-of-body” experience.) America will get what it asked for.
But … then again … I may be wrong.
What do you think is going to happen tonight? And what will be the implications with regard to matters of church and faith?
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Brother Geoff,
While you may indeed arrive at 10:00, you may not cast your ballot until 12:00. Maybe some sermon prep while in line? I’m getting ready to leave the house at 5:15 AM (lay folks are not as flexible as you full-time guys
and hopefully will not have to wait too, too, long.
Good predictions, may they be reversed!
John in St. Louis
John,
I live in a small town, and have never waited in line to vote. (Though I did have to wait on one guy … once…)
The joys of small-town living and elections.
Geoff,
You are a true political junky, and I appreciate this prediction. I was on realclearpolitics yesterday trying to figure out what the projection was on how many seats the Democrats would pick up. So, at least now I have an informed prediction. Thanks.
For the implications for the church, I think that we may see some turbulence in people’s personal faith. I look back at my earlier days when Clinton was re-elected. I was literally in tears thinking there was no hope! I was a Christian, but had virtually no understanding of the sovereignty of God. Had I known then that God can and does use evil acts (although He himself remains holy and innocent) to bring about His glory and to work things together for the good of his people, my faith would have grown, not withered.
So this is an opportunity for our faith to grow. Be strong men.
Shalom,
Ray
Ray,
RCP is a great place to look. They do a great job of examining and balancing all of the various polls. And they show something that you won’t hear on the network news … most all of the “toss-up” states are trending McCain.
I think, if anything, the final vote may even be closer than I have predicted.
True the Clinton remembrances … I remember that election night, as well. I thought that all was lost. But God was still in control. And He will still be in control this time tomorrow.
I just got back from voting. The only waiting I had to do was the thirty or so seconds I had to wait to insert my paper ballot into the counter while the older gentleman in front of me told the poll worker about his gout.
God bless Kentucky!
I’m insanely jealous, Geoff. I had to wait an hour. Total mess at our poll… they didn’t have the lines identified correctly by last name letter, nor the lines divided even remotely close to evenly. While I waited an hour being in the R-S line… I watched over 100 people walk right up to one of the other lines, grab their ballot, and vote.
I’m just glad that as of tomorrow, I won’t have listen to political ads on TV and radio, shred political flyers from the mail, and hang up on political telemarketing calls.
It’s a conspiracy man.
So, how do you see Missouri going? (Word “on the street” is that lots of pets and dead folk have already voted early in most of the Midwest states.
I heard on TV last night that Indiana has a 105% voter registration! 5% above the number of eligible voters are registered there!
Something’s rotten in Denmark…
Geoff,
If you have voted this early in the day… go back and vote again!
Hey this is now the Democratic Republic of America… vote early and vote often!
Geoff,
Missouri almost always goes the way of the winner in presidential elections. Don’t be surprised to find your predictions on target, with my state following its traditional pattern.
Here’s my plan for tonight… dinner with the family, taking my daughter to her gymnastics class, getting the kids in bed, and then watching ANYTHING but election coverage. I really don’t want to watch the carnage play out as returns come in and it becomes crystal clear that America is taking a dramatic turn to the left.
Greg,
Won’t work here in Kentucky.
I know we’re just a bunch of hicks in the sticks down here in “flyover country,” but you actually have to show up with a photo ID, proof of address, and “sign on the dotted line” here in our great state. (Imagine that…)
Maybe we should go up and do a seminar for the Ohio people who registered Casper the Friendly Ghost and the entire lineup of the Dallas Cowboys.
John,
Can’t do it man. I’m tuned in after 8:00. And will be up for the finish. (I didn’t get any sleep in 2000!)
Geoff,
It will definitely be a change for me. I can’t guarantee I’ll be able to resist tuning in, but it’s certainly my plan not to do so.
Geoff, this has been an unbelievable last few months. I had a family reunion in your fair (and my birth) commonwealth, up in Henderson in September. One of my cousins is the press secretary to your Democrat governor. We just touched on politics a little bit, and someone asked her about McConnell, the Republican senator. Mind you, this was in September! She said everyone knew that McConnell was going to win big. It was something everyone simply understood.
So, now he’s in for the fight of his political life. Crazy times!
Here on the right side of Missouri, my wife waited for an houe when pools opened. My wait was 30 minutes and my parents 15.
In my wait at 9AM, I saw only a small handful of young people. Of those I saw, half left because they did not want to wait.
I’ll be interested to see the demographics of who voted.
Geoff, normally takes me 10 minutes to vote in OK. I waited an hour and a half before casting the ballot. Turnout is record high here. If my homestate (VA) goes blue, I will disavow it as my homestate. selahV
Mike,
Mitch will win … there’s not much fire with that smoke.
The inability to wait for anything may very well be the thing that keeps the often championed “young vote” at its normal levels. Every election they sing about the flood of young people going to the polls, but it always remains the same %.
Hariette … a record turnout in OK is a good thing. Perhaps a bit of backlash against the already-claimed and declared victory for Obama?
Turned out I was the first one in line! Not even a free cup of coffee for my efforts
And come to think of it, I didn’t see any young folks either–not that they would be there at 5:30 in the morning anyway.
I’ll miss Tim Russert with his chart tonight.
Whoever is elected, I am praying that he will surround himself with men with good counsel, and make moral decisions which will lead this country back to God.
Thanks Geoff. I voted for McCain because I’m passionately pro-life and I believe that the Democratic platform on abortion is unconscionable. I’m praying that Obama, should he win, will become the leader that America, and the Democratic party, needs. I’m praying that His policies will reduce abortions in this country. I’m praying that his presidency will facilitate racial reconciliation. I’m praying that he will find ways to promote economic justice for rich and poor. I’m praying that his policies will protect family and religious freedom.
Dear John (#18),
Thanks for the that balanced, thoughtful, and (dare I say?) Christian post! I’ve grown rather weary of the idea that “GOP” stands for “God’s Own Party” and Obama is just a few steps above the Antichrist. Neither party has a monopoly on morality or godliness; the world will not end if Obama wins, nor will we hear the angelic chorus if McCain triumphs. Thanks for reminding us to pray for those in power, whoever they may be.
“So, the United States will elect Barack Hussein Obama as its next president. (Forgive me … slight “out-of-body” experience.) America will get what it asked for.”
I expect to hear Obama’s middle name as a sort of racist, “he’s really a terrorist”, back door insult from Hannity and most of Fox but I expected better here… isn’t it weird that nobody (including you) cares about McCain’s middle name?
I don’t think it’s weird at all, Stan.
If I thought he would win, I would have said, “John Sidney McCain III.” It’s actually a reference of respect on my part. Though I am not an Obama fan, if he is elected he will still be my president. I will respect him appropriately and oppose him vigorously when necessary.
But thanks for trying to read my mind and heart …
9:36 PM … pretty much a done deal. I’ll be off a few on the electoral vote, but I think the popular vote will still be close to my estimates. It makes one wonder about the 8-12% spreads in so many polls leading up to election day.
May God have mercy on the USA. People may have just voted for what they really deserve. It’s a sad day for America.
David
Volfan (and others),
Help me understand this. Why is an Obama victory such a catastrophe? Conversely, do you believe that McCain was God’s man for the job? If so, why do you believe that?
Well, the morning after does confirm most of the predictions. I had several conversations this morning at our local political club, which is cleverly disguised as the post office in our little mountain community. Our church is also the polling place in our area. There was some wailing and gnashing of teeth as well as one or two gloating voices, but it got me to thinking about how we should react as believers.
We do need to remember who is in charge of this universe and that we continue to press forward with the message of the Gospel. I guess that we often forget that we are the church in America, not the church of America. I vote based on issues that matter to me and my foundational beliefs because that is what I am accountable for in the long haul. The entire political process reeks of special interest, corruption, and total of concern for the vast majority of citizens. I will continue to work for productive change and accountability, but I will not be astonished when we have government as usual. I am truly grateful that I have been given the promise that this world is not my true home, I am just passing through.
Litprof,
I was really so much for McCain as I was against Obama…against what he stands for.
May God be patient with us. May the Lord be merciful towards the USA. May the Lord turn the heart of the King to do what’s right and good and wise.
David
PS. I’m deeply concerned. We have just elected the most liberal, socialistic President we’ve ever had, and he has a liberal, Democrat-controlled Congress to go along with him. I fully expect to see:
1. Govt. get bigger. (socialism)
2. Higher taxes.
3. Gays will have a stronger voice in Washington.
4. The animal rights radicals will have a stronger voice in Washington.
5. The gun control advocates will have a stronger voice in Washington.
6. Dr.’s, Pharmacists, Nurses, etc. better get ready, and if you have any surgery needing to be done, you might ought to go ahead and get it done before January.
7. A whole lot of people are gonna have to deal with a lot more Govt. regulations.
[...] Election Day Prognostications Well, the day is finally here. I, for one, am thrilled. I am ready for it all to be over. I’m a political junkie … but I’m really ready for this one to be over. Around 10:00 this morning I will cast my vote for John McCain. It’s not that I am such a big fan of McCain … I’m not. But from my faith, political, and financial perspectives, I find an Obama presidency somewhere in the vicinity of unthinkable. But, allow me to don my prophetic cap and add my prognistications for this election da [...]
Those of you with such dire expectations of an Obama Presidency: note that I’m only 56, but I am (1) an historian by avocation, and (2) a avid folk “historian” at that, i.e., I have listened to what an older generation told me about what they thought in years past.
History tells us that those in the South (including most of my ancestors)thought Abraham Lincoln was virtually the anti-Christ, and they waged a bloody war over what they thought he would do. The truth was (1) he did not have enough of a majority in Congress to do much, if anything, until the Southern members withdrew, and (2) his assasignation proved that he was much more moderate and compassionate than the power structure which followed him. No doubt that is why, within 50 years, Lincoln had become a folk-hero in the South.
Plenty of people–especially those who today would be classified as social conservatives and conservative evangelicals, believed that Franklin D. Roosevelt was not only a raging liberal, but a socialist as well, that Social Security was the beginning of socialism/communism in the US, and indeed that one’s Social Security number was the Mark of the Beast. In retrospect, he is considered one of the greatest Presidents, who not only led us out of the Great Depression, but to victory in World War II.
A child at the time, I can barely remember John F. Kennedy’s election, but by his second year in office, I remember well things that were being said about him in my hometown and household. He was a Catholic–and this was considered not just a mark of his particular denomination or religion, but it meant that his alligience was to the Pope, not the United States; he was a raging liberal, virtually a socialist; he associated with all these “troublemakers” and “agitatiors” (that was one of our favorite words in the Deep South, as “we” felt we had the local African Americans “in their place,” then “outside agitators” came in and upset our apple cart), and that brings us to the “d— n——” (God forgive me because I used that phrase as much as anyone else) whose cause he championed. Our expectations and views of that era, even in the South, has at least moderated somewhat.
And as a couple of you pointed out, even the Clinton years did not prove to be the end of the world.
I guess what I’m trying to say is (1) the sun will still come up tomorrow and on the day after the inauguration, and God is still on his throne. (2) With Paul, I agree that “there is no authority except that which God has established. The authorities that exist have been established by God. Consequently, he who rebels against the authority is rebelling against what God has instituted, and those who do so will bring judgment on themselves. For rulers hold no terror for those who do right, but for those who do wrong. Do you want to be free from fear of the one in authority? Then do what is right and he will commend you. For he is God’s servant to do you good.” (Romans 13: 1-4) And finally (3) we are probably too close to the situation right now to clearly see what will happen as a result of an Obama administration–so voice your opposition to anything he proposes which is wrong, but don’t borrow troubles from tomorow, and beware of self-fulfilling prophecies.
Great comments, all …
I was pretty close on the popular vote, huh? But I pretty much blew the electoral college. I truly didn’t think Obama would take Florida and Indiana.
Seems I was pretty close on my senate estimate, but a bit over-zealous on the house. The Dems didn’t get the real “clean sweep” they wanted. Mitch McConnell still has the power of the filibuster, which will surely slow the wheels of change over the next four years …
Geoff,
“Seems I was pretty close on my senate estimate, but a bit over-zealous on the house. The Dems didn’t get the real “clean sweep” they wanted. Mitch McConnell still has the power of the filibuster, which will surely slow the wheels of change over the next four years …”
Thankfully.
David
John,
Abe Lincoln wasnt for the murder of babies. Abe Lincoln wasnt for the gay agenda. Abe Lincoln wasnt for socialism. So, the election of Obama is cause for great concern for those who love the Lord and His Book, who are concerned about the sanctity of human life, and who are concerned about Big Brother Govt. trying to rule our lives and take our money…what little we have.
I wish that we had an Abe Lincoln today.
David
David,
You’ve missed my point, which is that we (probably both of “us”) may be too close to see things as they really are. We all look through certain lenses, some of which we recognize, some we don’t. Most Southerners circa 1860-65 looked at Lincoln through the cultural lens of a mentality that chattel slavery was not only necessary, but was a positive good (though interestingly enough, east Tennessee did not–that part of your state was dragged kicking and screaming into the Confederacy, and I would suggest began to support it wholeheartedly only long after the close of the war). Unless you live in and identify more with the mountains of east Tennessee than with the middle or western parts of your state, for your statement “I wish that we had an Abe Lincoln today,” you’d run the risk of being tarred and feathered during the first three quarters of the 19th Century south. But with time, atitudes and perceptions change.
And as for the “socialist” part, I find it interesting that social conservatives have made that claim against three rather rich Presidents who would have never had money under socialism, much less communism, viz., Franklin Roosevelt, John Kennedy, and now Barack Obama. Today few (although some) still make that claim against Roosevelt, and I don’t think I have heard it against Kennedy since his death. In 25 or 50 years, will anyone make it against Obama? Why not give him a chance, adopt a “wait and see” attitude? Or to put it in Reaganesque terms, “Trust, but verify.”
And BYW: I voted twice for a President who said that he was against abortion, but in eight years in office never did anything to stop or slow it. I might suggest you read the Democrat’s platform on that, which I understand Obama had a large part in writing.
volfan,
I’ve gotta say that I preferred #26 to #30! Your list in 26, for the most part, dealt with specific policy points that we could probably have a good, reasoned discussion about. #30, though, is largely sweeping statements that border on inflammatory rhetoric. Is wanting abortion to be “safe, legal, and rare” (a phrase we often hear from Democrats) the same thing as “being in favor of killing babies”? What exactly is the “gay agenda,” and how will an Obama presidency help to advance it? Are tax increases the same thing as “socialism” (defined as a system in which “the community as a whole should own and control the means of production, distribution, and exchange”)?I’m not saying I agree with all his positions, but I do think criticisms of them need to be based on facts and logic rather than emotion and hot-button language.
John and Litprof,
Obama is for abortion, and has voted that way in Congress. Has he not? Has he not openly said that he was for abortion being legal?
Abortion is the murder of unborn babies, thus, he’s for the murder of unborn babies. And, John, I’d have to agree with you that not much has been done by Bush to either slow down, nor stop abortion. Of course, a President is not a dictator. He can only do so much…with a Democrat controlled Congress. But still, I agree that Bush should have done more.
Franklin Roosevelt was socialistic. Anyone who is for more and bigger govt. and higher taxes is socialistic. Taking more of people’s money to give it to those who dont have…is socialistic. The govt. having more and more power over people’s personal and business lives is socialistic. Obama is for more govt. intervention and higher taxes…is he not? Did he not talk about redistribution of wealth?
Obama is for the gay agenda…making sodomy acceptable and ok…having govt.’s stamp of approval on the perversion. Obama is for gays having civil unions and having the rights and privileges that goes with that.
John, I do understand what you’re saying about history. I’m saying that I already know enough about Obama to say that I’m very, very concerned for our country.
David
Volfan,
I’ll grant your point about abortion (as long as you’re not suggesting that Obama is an “all abortion, all the time” kind of a gut, which–as far as I understand–he is not). I don’t agree with him, but, like John, I don’t see how electing pro-life presidents has given us much bang for the buck. Also, I think I recall McCain saying he wouldn’t use Roe v Wade as a “litmus test” for his Supreme Court nominees, so doubt little progress would be made under him either. If I were to be *really* cynical, I’d say that too many candidates running under the pro-life banner don’t understand what they can or can’t get done, or they just want to win votes and don’t intend to try. That makes them either naive or disingenuous, qualities I’d rather not see in our leaders.
As for taxation, I suspect I’d be more concerned if I made over $250K a year. One chart I saw, though, said McCain would give a roughly 4% cut to the super-rich, and a less than 1% cut to me ($50-75K range). Why is that a better deal?
Finally, while I do agree that homosexuality is a sin, I wonder why we keep singling it out for special condemnation. Didn’t God also say He hates divorce, and yet the divorce rate among Christians is roughly the same as in the population as a whole. Why isn’t the Christian right on a crusade against divorce? If we’re going to amend consitutions to define marriage as between a man and a woman, why not be fully biblical and add “for life.” Could it be that, by and large, homosexuals don’t vote Republican but divorced Christians do?
Bush did nothing to curtail abortion??
Stopping abortion is largely about the appointment of judges and Bush pushed through two of the most conservative justices available. Abortionist judges had a 6-3 lead when he took office and now they only have a 5-4 lead.
The number of abortions went down under Bush, no matter what Obama said at the debate. Check the CDC numbers.
He halted legislation promoting abortion that Obama has promised to sign.
Did you expect a President to overturn a Supreme Court decision? He can’t do that. At least not under our current Constitution.
Shane
Litprof,
I’d be for doing away with no fault divorce. I’d be for making it extremely hard to get a divorce. So, your point is not well taken on this.
I single out homosexuality because it’s such an issue today. We had a few states voting on marriage being between a man and a woman last night. And, Obama even mentioned gays in his speech after winning last night. And, gays are making a big issue out of it because they want to be accepted and even affirmed by the govt. So, that’s why it’s an issue with me. That’s why I mentioned it.
BTW, do you teach lit. at a university? If so, which one?
David
Volfan,
Thanks for your reply. I’m glad to see that you’re consistent when it comes to gay marriage vis-a-vis divorce. The latter is at least as destructive to “traditional family values” as the former, so I’d think they should get similar, if not exactly equal, time.
Yes, I’m an English prof at one of the Texas Baptist Universities.
Shane,
You said, “Abortionist judges had a 6-3 lead when he took office and now they only have a 5-4 lead.”
If I recall correctly, both the Bush appointees denied that they would enter the court with any agenda, or that they would try to change the law of the land–which is what the availability of abortion is. Although one (was it Roberts?) did refuse to discuss specifics at his confirmation, so we don’t know exactly what he would do if an appropriate case came before the court. Either way, I don’t think you could say they had altered the landscape that much on the specific issue of abortion, although on conservative issues in general, maybe.
And while the President cannot change things by twitching his nose, he can draft legislation and through party leaders, send that legislation to Congress. He can also use what Teddy Roosevelt called the “bully pulpit” of his office. Even in his first term, President Bush failed to do that. This says to me that abortion is a hot-button item that the Republican Party has used to garner evangelical votes while intending to take no action on it.
The ball is in our court, and neither legislation nor judicial fiat is the answer. The answer lies in changed hearts, which only the power of Jesus Christ can do, and second–in the interim–for the Church/the churches to come up with a plan to take care of all those “unwanted” babies. And that plan must allow that many (perhaps most) of them are mixed racially and born with significant problems (ranging from being HIV positive to addictions to the medical issues consistent with lack of pre-nadal care), which are the babies least likely to be adopted.
I agree that the church offers the most critically needed solution to the abortion issue. We offer the gospel that will change peopels lives. Then we offer support for “surprise” mothers. Then we offer homes for “unwanted” babies. If one is to be pro-life then one must also be pro-adoption. My wife and I have supported adoption causes in our town and are considering adoption for our family.
Nevertheless, whatever politics CAN aid in the fight, we should do our part to make that happen. That means, in our current legal structure, electing presidents who will appoint strict constructionist justices to the Supreme Court.