Is the Sky Blue … or Is It Falling? tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Is the Sky Blue … or Is It Falling?

Posted by in Baptist Life

Our guest writer today is Keith Price. Keith was born and raised on a small farm in southeastern, Michigan. He graduated from an all-boys Catholic high school in 1980 and received a B.S. in Engineering from Michigan State in 1985. After attending graduate engineering school at NC State he moved out west and began working in the food processing industry. It was in California that he made his connection with the SBC. After 17 years of working in the food processing industry to pay the bills he surrendered to the call of God that he had been running from since his youth.

Keith has been involved in teaching youth, Sunday School and discipleship classes since 1987. In 2003 he became the pastor of Willow Creek Baptist Church in Heppner, Oregon, where he ministers among the greatest people on earth. Keith has been married to Deana for nearly 23 years. They have three wonderful kids: Sarah, a freshman in college, Erin, a sophomore in high school and Jacob, a sixth grader. Keith is currently attending GGBTS in the MDiv program.

Keith has decided to take the “big leap” on his first post at sbc IMPACT! and add his insights to the recent noisy debate over LifeWay’s recent 2007 ACP statistics and Ed Stetzer’s analysis that the SBC is now in full-fledged decline as a denomination.  We wish him well … :)

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I can remember my hermeneutics professor at seminary saying “I know it says that, but does it mean that?” Numbers are funny this way also, and I would guess that numbers and statistic have been as wrongly used as the Bible. Each side of an issue will look at the same numbers and interpret them differently. And just like I have witnessed a lot of bad biblical hermeneutics, I have witnessed a lot of bad statistical analysis. The buzz about the SBC ACP numbers is no exception.

First off, understand that the analysis of the ACP numbers is inherently difficult. We are in the realm of multiple variables and multivariate statistical analysis. There is a lot of information that is missing, unknown or has not been provided. Most of what I have read in posts and comments shows a wide range of misunderstanding of statistical analysis that moves from basic to criminal stupidity. We keep seeing a lot of the same poor statistical quotes and numbers used over and over again. As Inigo Montoya said to Vizzini in the Princess Bride, “You keep using that word. I do not think it means, what you think it means.” I could give examples, but the point of this post is not to give a statistics lesson. Actually the point of this post is to give me an opportunity to show my ignorance.

I am not a statistics expert, however I have had graduate level statistic courses and have spent most of my career as an engineer researching problems, particularly process, taking data and then developing solutions based upon interpreting the data. Over those years I have learned to understand what the “numbers” say, what they mean, and especially what they don’t say or mean. Suffice to say, I probably have more experience in this area than the average bear. With that standard disclaimer let’s look at some numbers…

The Basics. I used the ACP numbers from 1991 through the present. On certain items I went back further in order to observe some trends, but I like the numbers from 1991 because they include AM worship attendance. I also did some checking on US trends for comparisons. Since 1991 the US Population has grown about 21% with an average death rate of 0.89%. Inflationary pressures on the US dollar would make a $1 in 1991 equal to about $1.50 today. I put in the death rate because someone will ask this. Just so you can get an idea of the magnitude of the numbers, since 1991 about 750,000 people that attend SBC churches on a given Sunday have died (about 44,000/yr).

I looked at the following categories: Churches, Baptisms, Total Membership, Resident Membership, SS Enrollment, SS Avg. Attend, AM Worship, and Total Gifts. Some of the categories I like better than others. For example Churches is a good category. You can count them and they are pretty well defined. Baptisms, SS attendance, AM worship attendance, and total gifts are OK categories. They too are pretty well defined however there are some questions about these categories. For example let’s look at some questions surrounding baptisms. How many are rededications, validations, or new converts? Is that ratio changing? Similar type questions can be asked about the other categories as well. Total membership, resident membership and SS enrollment on the other hand are poor numbers for any detailed analysis. What makes up these numbers? Each church may define them differently. How often are these numbers updated? There are too many questions surrounding them to get too excited about using them to defend our positions.

The “Blue Sky” Analysis. Since 1991 the SBC ACP numbers show two categories that have exceeded the 21% growth rate in the US population: AM Worship (34%) and Gifts (131%). These are positive indicators. Taken by itself the AM Worship number seems good. There are more people, on average, hearing the Word of God on a Sunday morning. The gift number is especially interesting. The 131% number is shocking to me. However, when we adjust for inflation and look at the gifts on a per capita basis (AM Worship) the increase drops to 38%. Still, that is a good sign and we can be excited that the gifts have increased very significantly, however the more interesting question is why have they increased? If they have increased because our people are becoming better givers and disciples, then we can celebrate. But, hold the balloons. Older folks tend to have more disposable income and are better givers. If the average age of those giving has increased significantly it may point to a growing problem, the aging of the SBC. If the number of estate gifts is up sharply this number is especially problematic. The numbers on the surface may appear to be good, but actually point to a looming problem. The study by the LifeWay group showing the average age of the attendees of the convention increasing seems to support this. I don’t have the answers, I’m just asking questions.

The “Middle of the Road” Analysis. Since 1991 the number of SBC churches has increased 17%. Combined with the increase in attendance the average SBC church has grown from 120 to 138 in attendance in AM worship. In 1991 there was one SBC church for every 6500 Americans, in 2007 that number increased to 6750 Americans/SBC. This maybe good or bad. Part of the problem is looking only at national numbers. While the number of churches nationally may have nearly kept pace with the US population, churches in specific areas may not have. For example, we have seen a population explosion in the NW, but not an explosion in the number of SBC churches. (Also note that the southern US completely dominates the SBC ACP statistics. The southern culture is different. And for those who do not think that there is a cultural difference think grits, sweet tea and catfish vs. apples, coffee, and salmon. But that is another post for another day.)

The “Sky is Falling” analysis. In 1991 we had 4,500,000 people attending Am worship. Since 1991 we have baptized 6,500,000 people. But, we have only seen an increase in Sunday AM worship of about 1,600,000. WHERE ARE THE OTHER 3,900,000 PEOPLE? I know 750,000 have died and there are some questions as to how many of the baptisms are rededications, validations and such, but the numbers are too far apart and cannot be explained away. The numbers simply don’t add up. We either have an aging problem that borders on the catastrophic or a serious problem with understanding discipleship, baptism, and membership.

Thoughts and Comments. I actually have a lot more analysis. Some of the numbers are rather interesting. Engineers can get a little “geeky” when it comes to numbers. But it is time for some thoughts and comments so folks can break out the flamethrowers. I don’t think the number of baptisms is the problem. The number of baptisms/SS Attendee has changed little since 1971, about 10:1. If you assume that your SS Attendee is your “committed” individual, those folks are out doing evangelism. It hasn’t changed much in over 35 years. Warning: I feel a rant coming on…We can harp all we want about going out and getting folks evangelized and baptized, but the folks that have been doing just that, are doing that and have been for 35 years and are probably getting a little tired of the powers that be bashing them over the head for doing the same job they have been doing for 35 years. The problem is not these folks doing the job, but that there are not nearly enough of these folks. We are not making disciples. (By the way, the 47:1 (members/baptisms) being thrown around the blogs is a nearly a useless statistical number for analysis IMO. Non-existent people always do a poor job of evangelism).

The problem is discipleship. The problem is that those “committed” believers, SS Attendees, have only increased at 1/3 the rate (7% vs. 21%) of the US population since 1991, while the AM attendance has increased 34%. When you look at the raw numbers, since 1991 we have added 6 times as many folks to the AM Worship as we have Sunday school. It seems to me that we have done a good job with getting folks to AM worship. But, I don’t believe that AM worship is much of an arena for discipleship. It is the “show” or the place of the information impartation. I believe that discipleship takes place in a smaller, face-to-face setting like small groups or Sunday school.

Folks, since 1991 we have baptized over 1.4 times as many folks as we had attending Sunday AM worship in that year. It takes 4 baptisms to make one AM attendee, 6 baptisms to make a member and about 23 baptisms to make one SS Attendee. We can get people to worship and we can get them baptized, but are we making disciples?

I think the real question the ACP numbers are begging us to engage is, “Do you understand what the great commission is?” Baptisms? AM worship attendance? SS enrollment? Resident members? More churches? Gifts? Make disciples – bingo! Do this and the other “numbers” will fall into place. I think that we have put too much focus on the numbers and we develop programs and measurement to encourage and produce statistical numbers, but do not encourage and produce the thing (discipleship) that will result in real, long term “numbers.”

When I had my own consulting business, my experience in different plants and operations gave me a good feel for what was going on and helped me to see problems and notice trends quickly. My “gut” feelings were often right. Ed Stetzer has been sounding an alarm over on his blog about the ACP numbers. While I don’t like the numbers he is using from a statistics point of view (I think there are better indicators), I think his experience and feel for things SBC are good. He certainly has been around the country, has great experience and a good pulse of what is going on. His gut (and some interesting ACP numbers) is telling him we need to address some problems.

I think we need to listen.